The News Today

One conclusion I can draw from the news today is that China is several decades away from superpower status in this world, and it may actually never reach that status. This whole Tibet thing is so far behind the times that it just makes the Han Chinese look weak and paranoid. Of course, every other big power in the world is misbehaving too these days to some extent, but only one of them has a chunk of its territory as enormous as Tibet filled with a native population that wants outright independence. You'd think the Chinese would have the sense to look at examples of separatist movements in relatively tiny areas like Chechnya and Kashmir (and yes, even the somewhat related case of the recently acquired U.S. colony of Iraq), and then realize that the tough-guy approach can really sap the strength of even the largest governed countries. And the Chinese have two of these by the way, because Xinjiang (with its Uighur separatist movement) is almost as big as Tibet. What China needs to do is try to prove to these native populations that staying with China has benefits, which it could if China were more enlightened or even just more in tune with its own interests.

The until recently over-exuberant U.S. consumer is basically responsible for the Chinese economic miracle of the last ten years. Right now, that gravy train is breaking down and being stripped for scrap metal. Hence, with the demand for its manufactured goods about to drop through the floor, China is about to get such enormous social problems of its own that trying to keep Tibet and Xinjiang is going to become ruinous.