Ruminations on the Decline of Empire
A couple years ago a columnist from "The Guardian" named Timothy Garton Ash wrote an article where he spoke of The Iraq War as America's Boer War. He claims that the 1905 Boer War kicked off the 50 year-long decline of the British Empire resulting in a loss of "top dog" status in the world. It's pretty convincing stuff actually.
If his claims are true (or even true-ish) then we have an interesting and not necessarily unattractive time ahead of us here in the States. Now, granted, that 50-year decline of the British Empire included two world wars and should this next protracted decline of a hyper-power also include such things then life will suck immeasurably. So let us hope that things like the Cold War's Mutually Assured Destruction will still apply through the coming years and that no big country knock-down, drag-outs will occur.
But barring the world war syndrome, we could see benefits from a slow releasing of America's grip on the world. Perhaps more money could be spent on schools and such. After all, half of the rest of the world's students want to study here (much like they did want to study in Britain back in the early to mid 20th century) and so becoming even more of a knowledge superpower (while discarding some of the ass-kicking superpower ways) would be a useful way to go.
If you look at Britain in those 50 years of imperial downsizing, there is a lot of good stuff! How many great British books were written, published and read worldwide from 1905 onward? How many great British plays were written and put on by theater companies worldwide? How much great rock and roll came off of those isles in the deep post-imperialist age? It's really almost as if the releasing of itself from empire spawned renewed creativity, isn't it? Take Monty Python. That is pure brilliance. It is also quintessentially English AND distinctly post-empire AND hugely influential on world culture. And did anyone think, when they heard and saw the Beatles, that England had lost its influence in the world? I think not.
Fast-forward to now. Washington is London a hundred years ago. Imperial over-stretch looms. One cannot conceive of a world where the US isn't all powerful and yet history teaches us that that world is coming. But it doesn't have to be that scary after all. And there could be benefits. There will also be some downsides to the end of US hegemony. You need only take a moment to imagine how Russia and China might behave toward their southern neighbors in a world free of those huge American fleets patrolling around tropical waters. I think certain countries will miss America's relatively friendly use of its powers. Let's be honest, if Russia or China had America's current power, they would never bother to spend 5, 10, or even 15 years merely warning a country to stop messing with their business interests, oil supplies, and diplomats of questionable motives. They would never allow tens of millions of their own citizens to vilify their own government's policies.
Be that as it may, and with the caveat that there is no current heir to US power (no you can't count China any time soon...not when they are still afraid to let their fighter pilots fly too far from base for fear that they might defect) US power will naturally diminish. I hope to see some good art, music, and literature come out of it.
I wonder if Rome's decline had any cultural benefits.
If his claims are true (or even true-ish) then we have an interesting and not necessarily unattractive time ahead of us here in the States. Now, granted, that 50-year decline of the British Empire included two world wars and should this next protracted decline of a hyper-power also include such things then life will suck immeasurably. So let us hope that things like the Cold War's Mutually Assured Destruction will still apply through the coming years and that no big country knock-down, drag-outs will occur.
But barring the world war syndrome, we could see benefits from a slow releasing of America's grip on the world. Perhaps more money could be spent on schools and such. After all, half of the rest of the world's students want to study here (much like they did want to study in Britain back in the early to mid 20th century) and so becoming even more of a knowledge superpower (while discarding some of the ass-kicking superpower ways) would be a useful way to go.
If you look at Britain in those 50 years of imperial downsizing, there is a lot of good stuff! How many great British books were written, published and read worldwide from 1905 onward? How many great British plays were written and put on by theater companies worldwide? How much great rock and roll came off of those isles in the deep post-imperialist age? It's really almost as if the releasing of itself from empire spawned renewed creativity, isn't it? Take Monty Python. That is pure brilliance. It is also quintessentially English AND distinctly post-empire AND hugely influential on world culture. And did anyone think, when they heard and saw the Beatles, that England had lost its influence in the world? I think not.
Fast-forward to now. Washington is London a hundred years ago. Imperial over-stretch looms. One cannot conceive of a world where the US isn't all powerful and yet history teaches us that that world is coming. But it doesn't have to be that scary after all. And there could be benefits. There will also be some downsides to the end of US hegemony. You need only take a moment to imagine how Russia and China might behave toward their southern neighbors in a world free of those huge American fleets patrolling around tropical waters. I think certain countries will miss America's relatively friendly use of its powers. Let's be honest, if Russia or China had America's current power, they would never bother to spend 5, 10, or even 15 years merely warning a country to stop messing with their business interests, oil supplies, and diplomats of questionable motives. They would never allow tens of millions of their own citizens to vilify their own government's policies.
Be that as it may, and with the caveat that there is no current heir to US power (no you can't count China any time soon...not when they are still afraid to let their fighter pilots fly too far from base for fear that they might defect) US power will naturally diminish. I hope to see some good art, music, and literature come out of it.
I wonder if Rome's decline had any cultural benefits.
Posted at 6/24/2008 03:39:00 PM UTC
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2 Comment(s):
The decline will be gradual and I wouldn't be surprised if while we do decline, no other power will be able to supplant us at the top because of global economic forces affecting all countries.
At least not in our lifetime.
Without Rome's decline we wouldn't have had all the nation states of Europe. Perhaps a U.S. decline will eventually result in the breakdown of this nation's union, resulting in a dozen smaller counties
I agree with you. Since there is nothing close to an heir to US power, this decline could take a hundred years. And maybe that's for the best. After all, Europe obviously doesn't have the stomach to truly assert itself, and Europe is the only other place that promotes some semblance of what we consider to be a just society, i.e. one that at least attempts to emulate Enlightenment goals. The leaderships in China and Russia are about a hundred times more Machiavellian, nationalistic, xenophobic, and chauvinistic than the worst American neo-cons. So you can't expect anything good from them in their current incarnations. However, isn't it likely that if the US experienced powerful decentralizing forces, that China and Russia would too?
Also interesting in this kind of scenario would be the actions of regional powers like India, Iran, and Brazil.....to include what would happen if they too broke down into smaller states...
As for the further and more drastic devolution of powers to the individual US States, I would applaud it in some ways because then the creativity of the blue states would no longer have to subsidize the hackneyed lameness of the red states. You know, why should all of our tax dollars go to having the government enable the opening of huge defense contracting operations in creativity-averse places like Kansas? Let's stop the bleeding and let them stew in their superstitious, militaristic little messes!
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