World View - A global perspective on our one world

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Democracy doesn't seem to always go our way...imagine!

Back in the mid-90s I was a couple of years into my early career managing private sector development and democratization programs in the newly freed Eastern block when something funny happened. Once having been taught democracy, half of the former Eastern block countries chose Communist candidates to govern them. This, I think, was the beginning of the end of the huge multi-billion dollar push to provide aid to the former Eastern block in order to remake them in our own image.

Now we see a similar thing happening in the Middle East. Billions of dollars of aid money pumped into these places to make democracy flourish, and what do they do? They elect someone that we wouldn't necessarily have wanted them to choose! In Iraq, its the Iran-friendly Shi'ites that are running the show, thanks to the much vaunted democratic elections. Thus in democratizing Iraq, we have handed the place over to the sphere of influence of a total rogue state next door. Noted Iraqi Shi'ite Moqtada Al-Sadr was quoted last week as saying that he would order his militia to come to the aid of Iran if anyone messed with them. If that isn't just about as bad as it gets from the US point of view then nothing is.

And then there was the West Bank Gaza today. 'Proudly conducting it parliamentary elections and handing the budding young democracy over to Hamas. And this despite the best efforts of USAID to do benefit soccer tournaments and such for Fatah over the last few months! Here it is again, we deliver democracy and then they go and use it as they please rather than as we would have liked them to! Damn!

'Wonder who's going to be democratized next? North Korea? They'll probably choose the absolutely psychotic son of the current dictator....oh well...so much for the whole beacon of light thing.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Googling

Try Bush and Google as combination:

http://www.newsnet5.com/technology/6246441/detail.html


Yes, Big Brother is watching, and he now wants to track your pornography habits! And I thought the UK was the only nanny state around!

Now don't get me wrong, I'm dead against child pornography, but if two consenting adults agree to exchange pictures/live web feeds in exchange for cash on the Internet, well it's nobody's business but their own. And as far as I am concerned, if they want Internet child protection, well its still the parents responsibilty to ensure their offspring do not spend too much time on the Net and only look at age relevant content.

And how will the quantity of pornography searches help child protection? You will not know whether children or adults were searching? And why do they need this to revive a failed law?

Maybe they are just trying to find out how many times the following sites were accessed (adult content, parental control advised):

http://www.milkandcookies.com/links/38764/
http://www.sanfords.net/George_Bush/George_Bush_funny_sayings_pictures.htm
http://www.lifeisajoke.com/flash17_html.htm
http://www.killsometime.com/video/video.asp?ID=57
http://www.thatsweird.net/funny_george_bush.shtml
http://www.holylemon.com/ConfusedBush.html
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/10/10/toiletpaper.shtml

Or maybe these on Bush and alcohol:

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi?archive=33&num=5141
http://www.landoverbaptist.org/news0102/president.html
http://tomflocco.com/fs/SecretServIntelSay.htm


Or the proud family history:

http://www.tarpley.net/bush2.htm
http://www.tupbiosystems.com/articles/bush_nazi.html

Sorry, just had to get those in, in case this is the week chosen, I am skewing the figures!

Raising kids, raising awareness?

That's not political you may think, simplest job in the world really. Or not. After a certain age they start asking questions, partly because they have seen their mother have a fit while watching Fox News, partly because there are some references in TV shows/series that they just do not understand, partly because they overheard discussions.

Like why are Americans so obsessed with their job because of the medical benefits? Surely they get health care without a job? And why this outcry at a supermarket not paying health care for its workers? Why is the terror alert always elevated on FOX, even though nothing has happened in the last 4 1/2 years? Why do governments not care about global warming? How come people have to run around in those orange suits with bandages over their eyes? What is torture? Why do the torture people? How come people are locked up without going to court? Why are they building a big wall in Israel? How come the war on terror is not finished, normally wars in the schoolbooks are over fairly quickly? Whay are they arguing about spying on people? Can they really listen to my phone conversations? Why do they put all this colour and stuff in food? What does it do? Why are animals becoming extinct? Why do some shoes cost more even though they are all made in China?

No, they do not ask those questions everyday, but they do come up and it is sometimes hard to answer. Hard, becuase you want to give a concise short answer, while at the same time trying to get all the relevant facts in. The more complex our world has become, the harder it is to know, understand and explain all. It was definitely easier in Roman times. I do not think that all of us understand 100% of the background of what is currently going on in the world. Plus with so many forms of communication available to us today we are further inundated with excess information. Trying to find backgrounds on stories in the internet is time consuming and laborious, and you spend hours filtering out junk. Like stories about Brad and Angelina (who cares?).

You can, of course, take the easy option in keeping with our times, send them out of the room or tell them they are to young or that they would not understand. In grown up speak that would be a "no protest zone" (don't want to be confronted with this), or for security reasons or "not enough background information available to them". Sounds familiar? Our governments tell us that often enough when they do not want to discuss issues.

I see the problem in trying to explain facts and events to others, not necessarily just children, whom we are trying to persuade to become more involved or at least awake to what is going on around them as the length and volume of the information available. Unlike some news stations which pretend that all stories can be simplified, good or bad, and have a snappy slogan, reality is long, sometimes boring, history. If the information is too short it will tend to be more biased and extreme. So with lengthy stories we lose listeners/readers to boredom and apathy even as we try and rouse them. The challenge for everyone is the same as that of raising kids - finding a short succinct way of communicating information, hopefully arousing some curiosity to investigate further.

No, I am not criticizing anyone here, just thinking about some of the stories I have read today. Like Al Gore's speech on MLK day -- Not short, but good reading.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Time to start walking the walk

Because of the aging of the population, it's probably accurate to say that most Americans remember the energy crisis of 1973 (demographers are free to correct me if this assumption is wrong). I was 8 at the time but I remember it, and I remember the secondary energy crisis that occurred in 1979 around the time of the Iran hostage crisis. Both times there was a great call to conserve energy and to do so not only for the short-term but to change habits so as to conserve energy. Then Reagan happened, and everyone quickly forgot about that issue. Sure there were blips here and there. The first Gulf War sent a shiver through the markets. The recessions of the late 80's and early 90's kept people's tastes in vehicles and big houses in check, but what followed them was a 10-year spending spree on ever bigger vehicles and absolutely monstrous houses.

And now we are not only back at square one energy-wise, but we're worse off. The main reason we're worse off is that China needs energy in a way that no country competing with America for energy resources back in 1973 did, and the secondary reason is that the places we both get our oil from are mostly volatile places. Oh and there is the also the not so small matter of just how much consumption each person is capable of now.

'Nothing new about what I've said here, it's been in the news for at least a year now. But what I haven't been seeing is a return to the thinking of the 70s that individuals needed to really start just plain consuming less energy. Why the disconnect? Why do politicians and journalists seem stuck in the idea that we need to keep consuming the same huge amounts of energy? One of the obvious answers is that we are spoilt and no politician wants to be the messenger that gets blamed for this problem.

Luckily, one thing seems to be helping the cause of energy conservation along is the epidemic of obesity. It seems that there is a budding movement to get people to start walking places again. This is a very, very good thing. Now if we could just find a way to get them to stop needing to buy every last unnecessary new doodad that comes onto the market, we might start helping things.

Say, anybody out there know of any towns that plan to ban cars (apart from Aspen, an energy munching monster masquerading as something else)? I'd consider moving there if there were.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

U.S. Concerns Made In China

Double whammy of bad news for the United States coming out of China today.

Firstly word is that China wants to shift some of its foreign exchange reserves from U.S. dollars into other currencies.

The second is the emergence of a Chinese automobile industry that worries auto-makers in Detroit.

Regarding the foreign reserves:

China now boasts the world's second-largest cache of foreign exchange -- behind only Japan -- and is on pace to see its reserves climb past $1 trillion later this year. Even a slight diminishing of the dollar as a percentage of those holdings could exert significant pressure on the U.S. currency, many economists assert.

In recent years, the value of the dollar has been buoyed by major purchases of U.S. Treasury bills by Japan, China and oil-exporting countries -- a flow of capital that has kept interests rates relatively low in the United States and allowed Americans to keep spending even as debts mount. Some economists have long warned that if foreigners lose their appetite for American debt, the dollar would fall, interest rates would rise and the housing boom could burst, sending real estate prices lower.
A precipitous unloading of dollars is not, however, in China's best interest either. Diversification will have to happen in a measured way:

Not all economists anticipate negative repercussions for the U.S. economy. Were China and Japan to engineer a significant fall in the dollar, those nations also would suffer the consequences -- sharply diminished exports as Americans lose spending power, plus a drop in the value of their dollar assets.

"It is thus extremely unlikely that China would do anything to harm its own balance sheet," wrote Stephen Jen, an economist with Morgan Stanley, in a research note distributed Monday.
This will be a delicate dance.

Meanwhile a nondescript car at the Detroit Auto Show is making the industry boys worry:

It does not matter that Geely [pronounced JEE-lee], the Chinese carmaker getting a lot of attention at the auto show here, has yet to sell a single car in the United States. It is the possibility it could that has Detroit talking.

"I think it's the beginning, the very beginning, of Chinese international participation in the U.S.," said Robert A. Lutz, General Motors' vice chairman and product development chief. "A few years down the road, sure, it'd be foolish not to see it as a threat."
Once upon a time it was the Japanese and Koreans that were the new kids on the block, and at first their offerings were not considered a threat to the American companies. Not now:

"The only question is when," the chief executive of DaimlerChrysler, Dieter Zetsche, said of a Chinese presence in the United States. "The Chinese would be stupid not to do so. The Chinese are very intent to build a national auto industry. That is clear."

Recalling the collective shrug American automakers gave when Japanese cars entered the market, Detroit, in particular, is paying attention.

"Remember, the first Toyotas were laughable," Mr. Lutz said. "The first Hyundais that we saw were laughable."
This while Detroit is suffering, and Ford and GM are shedding employees and running in the red:

The deepening financial troubles of General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. will likely overshadow the shimmering new car and truck models on display at the Detroit auto show next week, one of the industry's most important annual events.

The North American International Auto Show, beginning Sunday in downtown Motor City, comes as the two U.S. automakers -- facing cutthroat competition, high labour-related costs, shrinking market share and excess capacity -- are preparing to report their fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

Analysts expect GM, which has lost nearly $4 billion (2.3 billion pounds) through the first three quarters of 2005, to post its fifth straight quarterly loss later this month. Cross-town rival Ford is expected to eke out a small quarterly profit, but announce major plant closings and blue-collar layoffs.

"The next 12 months will not only determine the very future of the domestic automobile industry as we know it, but Detroit will become the lightning rod for the most pressing issues facing this country -- health care costs, pension reform, global competition and its threat to the industrial foundation of America," said Peter DeLorenzo, auto analyst and publisher of Autoextremist.com, a closely-watched industry Web site.

The mood will be sombre at Ford's stand with Americas president Mark Fields and other top executives avoiding questions on the details of the automaker's long-awaited restructuring plan for North America during the show.

Ford Chairman and Chief Executive Bill Ford Jr. has said the turnaround plan, expected to be revealed on January 23, would include "significant plant closings" and job losses.
Used to be the only news that came out of China had to do with the communist leadership and the nation's military strength. These days, it is mostly to do with the rapid growth of an economy powered by 1.3 billion people, and an industrial engine that cannot be ignored, and is shaping the world in ways their political power never could.

Thursday, January 05, 2006

The Clash of Civilizations is a Local Thing that Occurs Globally

Excerpted from Pericles’ Funeral Oration, 4th Century BC (Peloponnesian Wars Book 2.34-46):

“We throw open our city to the world, and never by alien acts exclude foreigners from any opportunity of learning or observing, although the eyes of an enemy may occasionally profit by our liberality…..while in education, where our rivals from their very cradles by a painful discipline seek after manliness, at Athens we live exactly as we please, and yet are just as ready to encounter every legitimate danger….instead of looking on discussion as a stumbling-block in the way of action, we think it an indispensable preliminary to any wise action at all…indeed if I have dwelt at some length upon the character of our country, it has been to show that our stake in the struggle is not the same as theirs who have no such blessings to lose…"

In this 2,400-year-old speech honoring war dead, the leader of Athens is making a point of distinguishing his people, the Athenians, from their adversaries, the Spartans. The main message is that where the Spartans spend almost all of their peacetime preparing for war and honoring their Gods specifically in order to better be prepared for war, the Athenians spend their peacetime running their city as an inclusive, participatory place where the arts, sciences, and the general enjoyment of life are encouraged. The speech is of course given during wartime and the Athenian leader claims that Athenians do well when forced into war because they have so much to lose. The Spartans on the other hand, in his view, have nothing to fight for except the fight itself.

Unfortunately, in the end the Spartans prevail, establish tyrannical rule over Athens, and then it takes 30 years for the Athenians to bring enlightened rule back to their city. But for our purposes, the cultural and scientific importance of ancient Athens on the world today was many times that of Sparta, which produced nobody of the stature of say Socrates, Plato, Solon, and Sophocles. It is additionally interesting to note that the Spartans were much more religious than the Athenians and kept their martial society running mainly by exploiting slave labor to the greatest extent possible. Not to say that the Athenians were saints, just that for the ancient world, they were pretty progressive and especially so when compared with the Spartans who would take boys from their parents at the age of seven to start their 30-40 years of military service and whose mothers would bid their sons farewell when they went to war by saying that they wanted to see them return either in victory or being carried home dead on their shield.

So why is this important to us now? I would argue that this Athenian versus Spartan story can serve as an archetype for a conflict that exists in one form or another within every influential society of our current era. Please note that I am saying that the conflict exists within each society and not as much between the societies.

After 9/11 many Americans and Brits pointed to a book published a few years previously called the “Clash of Civilizations” by Samuel P. Huntington that basically claimed that the defining conflict of our time would be between democratic societies that believed in a mostly secular rule of law and fanatically Islamist countries that were bent upon the subjection or destruction of all who disagreed with their narrow worldview. While there is some truth to this when viewed in a regional context in some parts of the world, I don’t believe that this great inter-societal struggle is the defining one of our time because it suggests that there are a set of thoroughly enlightened societies pitted against a set of thoroughly unenlightened societies. This is far too simplistic and sweeping a view to describe most places in the 21st century. In my view, the truth is that this is a struggle within each society between its own Spartans, i.e. people following some hard and fast ideology or strict religious interpretation or blind loyalty to leaders who see the world as a place defined by threats that you should spend all of your time preparing to fight versus each society’s own Athenians, i.e. more tolerant, outward-looking people whose main concern is creating a just and diverse society, furthering the knowledge in the arts and sciences for the common good, promoting public discourse on matters of state, and having a good time when possible.

Versions of these camps definitely exist in the United States these days. One camp suggests that we should do whatever it takes to protect ourselves even to the point of turning our backs on our own notions of the rule-of-law, freedom of speech, the right to privacy, and freedom of association. That camp believes that the US can do no wrong in its efforts, that God himself watches over the nation, and that anyone that disagrees with it is an enemy. Those would be the Spartans. The other camp believes in understanding cause and effect in a highly complex international and national environment that melds access to resources with sense of identity, varying levels of insecurity with mistrust, and that pits extremely free-acting wealthy elements against poorer elements with little control over their own circumstances. This camp believes more in promoting its own security by reducing the motivation to attack it on the part of potential aggressors all the while maintaining its own standards of conduct even if those standards make it more vulnerable. Those would be the Athenians. These are as I said archetypes that I’m using for the sake of making a point. And sure, there are gradations in these things and gray zones in the thinking and the motivations of people, but as anyone who has attended cocktail parties and dinners over the last four years knows, you really end up having to choose sides these days when it comes to matters of our own governance and security.

And this is where I perceive the real "Clash of Civilizations" to be occurring. Within our own society and within most influential societies in the world there is a very two-sided conflict going on between an almost tribal element that demands fierce loyalty and a simplistic world view versus a globalized element that recognizes complexity, wants to be fully integrated and engaged with the whole world, and has no interest in conquest or subjection.

Unfortunately, in most influential countries now, it is the Spartans that have the power. That definitely applies here in the US, where the President says that you are either with us or against us, and where disagreeing with policy is suddenly not supposed to be in the national character. But is it also true in Russia, where the need for a free press was done away with in the late 90s along with any sense that Russia and the outside world were melding together. This of course, coincided with a war in Chechnya. It’s true in China where there was never a free press and where people who say that they would be proud to die invading Taiwan enjoy relative freedom while those who say that they should have a say in whether toxic waste is dumped on their front yards are beaten and incarcerated. It’s true in India where Hindu Nationalists are busily preparing to begin the long slow process of purging their society of all others. You can even see the beginnings of this in Europe where people have remained remarkably quiet about the issue of having foreign government operatives kidnapping some of their immigrants. The list goes on. This same brand of dichotomy exists in Thailand, Egypt, South Africa, you name it.

Anyone out there want to chime in or disagree?

Sharon On The Brink

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon may not last much longer than his long time enemy Yassar Arafat did, after suffering a massive stroke today.

This is his second stroke in just the past three weeks.

Many see Sharon as a leading force in the battle against those that would look to turn the clock backward on Israeli concessions toward a peaceful co-existence with a growing, yet unstable Palestinian population. He has literally shaken up politics in Israel. Yet nothing that he has done has been without controversy and opposition, both from within his country and from Palestinians. His policies in recent years have been based on his recognition of the realities of a Palestinian population in Israel that could soon become a majority voting power, eliminating any likelihood of a two nation solution.

If Sharon dies things could get very dicey as an internal power struggle ensues, and the nation wrestles with exactly what policies it will support or reject without his leadership. Don't expect Palestinians to sit by idly without a reaction of their own, and don't expect Hamas to do so either.

2006 could be an even more violent time in the Middle East.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

The Ongoing Iraqi Civil War

The LA Times ran a story this weekend regarding the civil war in Iraq. The gist: they're already in one.

In a speech delivered as Iraqis prepared to go to the polls, President Bush said he didn't believe a civil war would break out in the country. But some observers believe it has already begun — a quiet and deadly struggle whose battle lines were thrown into sharp relief by the highly polarized vote results.

...

James Fearon, a Stanford University political scientist and an authority on modern conflicts, believes that Iraq's civil war began almost as soon as Hussein was ousted, and that it is now obscured and partly held back by the presence of foreign forces.

"I think there is definitely a civil war that has been going on since we finished the major combat operations," Fearon said. He rejects the position of many observers that a civil war is still only a possibility for Iraq.

"When people talk about 'Will there be a civil war?' they are really talking about a different type of civil war," he said.

The kind of war emerging in Iraq, characterized by guerrilla attacks, kidnappings, assassinations and "ethnic cleansing," is typical of modern civil conflicts, Fearon said.

"Since 1945, almost all civil wars, a big plurality, have been guerrilla wars where it is kind of insurgency versus counterinsurgency," he said. "Most civil wars look more like what we are seeing in Iraq now."
This is something I've been saying for a long time. When I first started my On The Road To 2008 blog in 2004, I wrote about the U.S.'s involvement in Iraq's civil war. Today matters only look far worse because the guerrilla tactics have not let up, and because of an increased sentiment that the political process is being held together by a thread.

I strongly recommend you read the entire article. Anyone who can convince me that George W. Bush knew what he was getting into when he invaded Iraq wins an award.
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